Last week, I E-Mailed the folks in Tampa:
Forecasts are showing indications of gathering Caribbean trouble just before Halloween. I hope it’s a false alarm, but we won’t know for a few days.
Today, I E-Mailed:
It’s for real! Tropical Depression 18 has formed in the Caribbean, but it looks like it will leave Tampa alone. It looks like it will cross eastern Cuba, head up Florida’s east coast, thrash the Outer Banks, then slam somewhere into New England.
The folks replied:
Hi Marc. Well that’s not very nice of the weather gods. We have a brief planned. ... Do you see any problems with those plans? The current track from noaa does not seem to indicate that. Whadayathink?
I replied:
I don’t think there is a problem.
Compared to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast, the NOGAPS model forecast is biased against Tampa, by first sending the storm west of the forecast NHC track. Nevertheless, a cold front moving across the U.S. is forecast to push the storm back east again. So, even if you make pessimistic assumptions, the storm is still forecast to move east of Florida.
So, the weather gods are nasty, but this time they have their eyes on people other than those in Tampa.
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